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Can 100% renewable energy power the world? - Federico Rosei and Renzo Rosei

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It is also an extremely reliable energy source, meaning plants are able to operate at maximum capacity more often. The high reliability of nuclear energy means that in terms of production, one nuclear plant could have an equivalent output to two coal power stations - or three to four renewable plants , which are able to generate the same amount of power 1 GW but in a less consistent way.

To be sustainable and equitable, climate action must go hand in hand with meeting energy needs in a way that countries can afford. This requires a mix of different energy sources, and nuclear has a major role to play. Speaking at the IEF in November , Cosmin Ghita, CEO of Romanian nuclear energy company Nuclearelectrica, said: "We need all of the sources of energy — gas, nuclear, renewables — to be able to maintain our security of supply, maintain our economic needs, and also to decarbonize.

Globally, nuclear power reactors generate the power that provides around 10 percent of the world's electricity across 30 countries, mostly in Europe, in North America and Asia.

Increasingly, so-called 'newcomer' countries are recognizing the potential of nuclear power to help provide affordable clean energy to their growing populations. Dozens of governments, from Belarus to Bangladesh and from Uganda to the United Arab Emirates, are considering or constructing nuclear power facilities.

In the global energy mix, research suggests that in the decade to , the growth of renewables for electricity production was largely 'cancelled out' by the global decline in the use of nuclear. During that time, although the use of renewable energy for electricity steadily increased, this was 'offset' by the declining use of nuclear.

Since then, however, the same analysis shows that nuclear power has remained a stable part of the global electricity mix, while renewables have grown considerably.

Though the connection is not always made, Cosmin Ghita made a similar point at the IEF, saying: "In the last 50 years, nuclear energy has led to avoidance of releasing around 74 gigatons of carbon emissions.

Scientists have long argued that combined use of renewables and nuclear power is a smart way forward. Just days before the Paris Agreement was signed in , leading climate change scientists from Europe told The Guardian newspaper, "nuclear will make the difference between the world missing crucial climate targets or achieving them".

Three years later in , researchers from MIT in the US found that in light of improved safety measures for nuclear energy and growing concerns about reducing emissions, "closures of existing [nuclear] plants undermine efforts to reduce carbon dioxide and other power sector emissions".

More recently in the EU, ten countries have called for "safe and innovative" nuclear energy to be formally recognized as a green source of power due to its potential to help reach ambitious targets for reductions in emissions.

They wrote: "To win the climate battle, we need nuclear power. In India too, increasing use of nuclear is seen as a crucial way to cut dependence on coal and strive towards the net-zero emissions by target set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the COP26 summit.

The IEA acknowledges that nuclear power is the second-biggest source of low-carbon electricity worldwide after hydropower and that the use of nuclear energy has avoided the release of 56 billion tonnes of CO 2 since , equivalent to almost two years of global emissions at current rates.

Most of the new nuclear plants are expected to be built in countries with price-regulated markets or where government-owned entities build, own, and operate the plants, or where governments act to facilitate private investment. WEO had a special focus on nuclear power, and extended the scope of scenarios to The Scenario gives a cost-effective transition to limiting global warming assuming an effective international agreement in , and this brings about a more than doubling of nuclear capacity to GWe in , while energy-related CO 2 emissions peak before and then decline.

In this scenario, almost all new generating capacity built after needs to be low-carbon. For countries that import energy, it can reduce their dependence on foreign supplies and limit their exposure to fuel price movements in international markets.

Carbon dioxide emissions from coal use level off after in the New Policies Scenario, though CCS is expected to be negligible before CO 2 emissions from gas grow strongly to Ten countries account for almost three-quarters of the world total for fossil-fuel subsidies, five of them in Middle East notably Iran and Saudi Arabia or North Africa where much electricity is generated from oil, and where nuclear power plants and renewables would be competitive, but for those subsidies.

Globally, nuclear power capacity is projected to rise in the New Policies Scenario from GW in to GW in , around 20 GW lower than projected last year. WEO also included a "Low Nuclear Case which examines the implications for global energy balances of a much smaller role for nuclear power.

Its effect would be to "increase import bills, heighten energy security concerns and make it harder and more expensive to combat climate change. Net Zero by , released in May , outlines a possible roadmap for the global energy sector to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century.

In the roadmap, the amount of energy provided by nuclear nearly doubles between and To achieve this, new capacity additions reach 30 GW per year in the early s.

Whilst absolute supply from nuclear increases, its relative contribution to the electricity mix decreases from about would raise the costs of a net-zero emissions pathway and add to the risk of not meeting the goal. Decarbonisation drives down the carbon intensity of electricity generation: it falls from grams of CO 2 per kilowatt-hour in to below zero in net terms around Innovative transportation technologies are gaining momentum and are projected to increase electricity demand.

Achieving this long-term deployment level will require construction rates for new nuclear capacity of 23 GWe per year on average between and Electric vehicles will account for TWh. ETP developed the earlier scenarios.

Energy efficiency, renewables and CCS make the largest contributions to global emissions reductions under the scenario. Under the 2DS scenario, some 22 GWe of new nuclear generating capacity must be added annually by Launching ETP , the IEA said: "A concerted push for clean-energy innovation is the only way the world can meet its climate goals," and that governments should help boost or accelerate this transformation.

ETP developed the ETP scenarios. In the 2DS one which is the main focus, some 22 GWe of new nuclear generating capacity must be added annually by Launching the ETP report, the IEA executive director said: "Electricity is going to play a defining role in the first half of this century as the energy carrier that increasingly powers economic growth and development.

While this offers opportunities, it does not solve our problems; indeed, it creates many new challenges. In the edition of the International Atomic Energy Agency's IAEA's Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to , the high case projection has global nuclear energy capacity increasing from GWe in to GWe by , GWe by and GWe by In the high case, 5.

The IAEA's low case projection assumes a continuation of current market technology and resource trends with few changes to policies affecting nuclear power.

It is designed to produce "conservative but plausible" estimates. It does not assume that all national targets for nuclear power will be achieved. Under this projection, nuclear capacity decreases to GWe by , before recovering slightly to GWe by and GWe by These projections represent an increase from those presented in the edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to , where nuclear generating capacity increases to GWe by , GWe by and GWe by in the high case.

Low case projections have also increased from GWe by , GWe by , and GWe by Earlier projections from the IAEA had suggested a significantly stronger growth outlook for nuclear energy.

For example, in the edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period to , the IAEA's low projection showed a nuclear capacity increase from GWe in to GWe in ; the high case for that year was GWe.

For it projected GWe and GWe respectively. The projected figures in the edition for the year ranged from GWe low case to GWe high case ; the actual figure for nuclear capacity in was GWe.

allow nuclear power plants to operate effectively. Policies should support a level playing field for all sources of low-carbon power projects. In the near term, small modular reactors "could extend the market for nuclear energy" and even replace coal boilers forced into closure in order to improve air quality.

The US Energy Information Administration EIA publishes an annual report called International Energy Outlook IEO. Renewables increase at 2. Generation from nuclear is forecast to increase by 1.

By , the outlook sees China surprass the United States as the country with the most nuclear generating capacity. In IEO , nuclear power and renewable energy are forecast to be the world's fastest-growing energy sources from to Renewables increase 2. Nuclear increases by 2. Generation from non-hydro renewables increases by 5.

In the reference scenario, global installed nuclear generating capacity would increase from GWe in to GWe in Over this period, nuclear electricity generation would increase from TWh to TWh but its share of total global electricity generation will remain unchanged at around In the high nuclear scenario, the IEEJ says that nuclear in effect "becomes the base power source" for many emerging countries, such as Asian and Middle Eastern countries.

This scenario assumes that nuclear energy "will benefit from lower level costs, and that nuclear technology transfer will be properly made from developed countries of nuclear technology, such as Japan, to emerging countries.

The IEEJ notes: "The development of nuclear in the future is significantly uncertain. It is not only due to countries' or regions' circumstances of energy, economy, and development level of social infrastructure, but also a matter of international relations.

In October , World Energy Council WEC published new scenarios developed in collaboration with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute as The Grand Transition. WEC notes that while global energy demand has more than doubled since , the rate of growth for primary energy will now reduce and per capita demand will peak before However, electricity demand will double by Furthermore, "limiting global warming to no more than a 2°C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices.

More than half of nuclear capacity additions throughout the period are in China, reaching GWe in and GWe in India follows China, with nuclear capacity reaching GWe in The report also said: "The outlook for nuclear up to will depend largely on the success of the industry in constructing plants to agreed budgets and with predictable construction periods.

It is evident in a number of countries that median construction times are stable. In November the World Energy Council WEC published a report: Policies for the future: Assessment of country energy and climate policies , which ranked country performance according to an energy sustainability index, meaning how well each country performs on "three pillars" of energy policy — energy security, social equity, and environmental impact mitigation particularly low-carbon emissions , or simply environmental sustainability.

The five countries with the "most coherent and robust" energy policies included large shares of nuclear energy in their electricity fuel mix. The report said that countries wanting to reduce reliance on nuclear power must work out how to do so without compromising energy sustainability.

In Germany this would be a particular challenge without increasing the reliance on carbon-based power generation "since the renewable infrastructure currently does not have the capability to do so. The version of this WEC World Energy Trilemma report gave top rating to Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Spain as being the only countries that historically demonstrate their ability to manage the trade-offs among the three competing energy policy dimensions coherently.

These all have, or depend upon, a high level of nuclear contribution. Germany had notably dropped down the list on energy security and sustainability criteria, as had France on energy security.

Canada plunged from due to environmental sustainability, though at top on the other two. In the edition, WEC gave top honours to Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Germany, Spain, and Japan dropped down the rankings. In December the European Commission EC published its Energy Roadmap , a policy paper.

This was very positive regarding nuclear power and said that nuclear energy can make "a significant contribution to the energy transformation process" and is "a key source of low-carbon electricity generation" that will keep system costs and electricity prices lower.

Those scenarios also had the lowest total energy costs. Harmony sets a further goal for the nuclear industry, drawing on the experience of nuclear construction in the s.

The World Nuclear Association says this requires an economic and technological level playing field, harmonized regulatory processes to streamline nuclear construction, and an effective safety paradigm which focuses safety efforts on measures that make the most difference to public wellbeing. The build schedule would involve adding 10 GWe per year to , 25 GWe per year to , and 33 GWe per year from then.

This rate compares with 31 GWe per year in the mids. The Harmony goal is put forward at a time when the limitations, costs and unreliability of other low-carbon sources of electricity are becoming politically high-profile in several countries.

In electricity demand, the need for low-cost continuous, reliable supply can be distinguished from peak demand occurring over a few hours daily and able to command higher prices. Supply needs to match demand instantly and reliably over time.

There are a number of characteristics of nuclear power which make it particularly valuable apart from its actual generation cost per unit — MWh or kWh.

Fuel is a low proportion of power cost, giving power price stability, its fuel is on site not depending on continuous delivery , it is dispatchable on demand, it has fairly quick ramp-up, it contributes to clean air and low-CO 2 objectives, it gives good voltage support for grid stability.

These attributes are mostly not monetized in merchant markets, but have great value which is increasingly recognized where dependence on intermittent sources has grown, and governments address long-term reliability and security of supply. The renewable energy sources for electricity constitute a diverse group, from wind, solar, tidal, and wave energy to hydro, geothermal, and biomass-based power generation.

Apart from hydro power in the few places where it is very plentiful, all of the renewables have limitiations, either intrinsically or economically, in potential use for large-scale power generation where continuous, reliable supply is needed.

Apart from nuclear power the world relies almost entirely on fossil fuels, especially coal, to meet demand for base-load electricity production. Most of the demand is for continuous, reliable supply on a large scale and there are limits to the extent to which this can be changed. Natural gas is increasingly used as fuel for electricity generation in many countries.

The challenges associated with transport over long distances and storage are to an extent alleviated through liquefaction.

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Generators must pay a significant fine if they fail to deliver service. This ensures that electricity—an essential service—will be available to meet peak demand. In a pure energy market, there is no such requirement to provide power at a future date, making the grid reliant on short-term market dynamics.

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